14_2025 Fantasy Baseball Impact Analysis

Project Overview

This analysis evaluates the roster management strategies of the 2025 Fantasy Baseball season. By leveraging daily player statistics and transaction history, we determine the relative importance of the Draft versus Free Agency and identify which teams were most effective at managing their rosters.

The core metric used is a Volume-Weighted Impact Z-Score. This method converts all counting and rate statistics into standardized impact values relative to the league average, rewarding both quality and volume of play.

Key Findings

1. Draft vs. Free Agency Importance

The 2025 season data overwhelmingly suggests that the Draft is the primary driver of positive team value, while the aggregate impact of Free Agency is negative.

Draft: Generated a Net Z-Score of +137.0, with 56 players converting positive value.
Free Agency: Generated a Net Z-Score of -137.0, with only 38 players providing positive value.

The chart below visualizes this massive disparity. Most teams show a strong positive blue bar (Draft value) and a negative orange bar (Free Agent value), indicating that their roster churn actually hurt their overall categorical standing.

Draft vs Free Agent Impact

This stark contrast highlights the difficulty of streaming players. While finding a “diamond in the rough” is possible, the average free agent pickup performs significantly below the league replacement level, often hurting team ratios (ERA, WHIP) or failing to accumulate meaningful counting stats.

2. Best Draft Picks

The draft builds the foundation. These were the monsters that anchored their respective teams.

Rank	Player	Team	Total Z-Score
1	Tarik Skubal	AFFO	13.15
2	Zack Wheeler	BP	12.50
3	Paul Skenes	ELLI	11.91
4	Garrett Crochet	AFFO	10.13
5	Hunter Brown	AFFO	9.37
6	Aroldis Chapman	BP	9.22
7	Nathan Eovaldi	BP	8.70
8	Joe Ryan	$$$	7.87
9	Bryan Abreu	$$$	7.84
10	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	GIBB	7.79

3. Best Free Agent Pickups

Despite the general difficulty of free agency, several impact players were acquired off the wire. The top pickups by Total Impact Z-Score were:

Rank	Player	Team	Total Z-Score
1	Nick Pivetta	AFFO	7.67
2	Abner Uribe	AFFO	5.97
3	Emilio Pagan	ELLI	4.07
4	Jeremiah Estrada	HILL	3.70
5	Carlos Estevez	PJR	3.12
6	Griffin Jax	HILL	2.69
7	Merrill Kelly	CHER	2.68
8	Jacob Misiorowski	CHER	2.65
9	Nick Lodolo	DO	2.61
10	Ranger Suarez	ELLI	2.54

Nick Pivetta’s dominance as a free agent pickup suggests a scenario where a high-strikeout starter was dropped (perhaps due to injury or a bad stretch) and then provided elite production upon return.

4. Best Teams at Free Agency

Efficacy in the free agent market varied widly by team. AFFO stands out as the only team to generate significant positive net value from their free agent moves.

Rank	Team	Source Impact (Z-Score)	Analysis
1	AFFO	+5.19	The clear winner of the waiver wire, finding multiple high-impact arms.
2	YBSD	-1.21	Neutral/Slightly Negative. churned roster without imploding ratios.
3	DO	-2.45	Minor negative impact.
4	GIBB	-3.74	Minor negative impact.
5	CHER	-12.10	Struggled to find consistent contributors.
6	ELLI	-12.53	Negative impact despite finding Pagan/Suarez.
7	$$$	-15.73	Significant value lost to churn.
8	PJR	-16.99	Significant value lost to churn.
9	HILL	-38.71	High activity led to accumulation of poor stats.
10	BP	-38.76	High activity led to accumulation of poor stats.

4. Team-by-Team Breakdown

Below is a snapshot of each team’s best and worst moves from the Draft and Waiver Wire, along with a completely unsolicited performance review.

Team: $$$

Drafted like a pro, managed like an intern. You set yourself up for success and then tried your hardest to trade it away for magic beans on the waiver wire.

Best Draft Pick: Joe Ryan (7.87)
Worst Draft Pick: Tanner Houck (-6.42)
Best Free Agent: Ben Joyce (-1.50)
Worst Free Agent: Luis Severino (-3.83)

Team: AFFO

A masterclass in roster construction. The draft was solid, and the moves actually made sense. We’re all very impressed (and slightly annoyed).

Best Draft Pick: Tarik Skubal (13.15)
Worst Draft Pick: Reese Olson (-1.46)
Best Free Agent: Nick Pivetta (7.67)
Worst Free Agent: Jeffrey Springs (-1.95)

Team: BP

Drafted like a pro, managed like an intern. You set yourself up for success and then tried your hardest to trade it away for magic beans on the waiver wire.

Best Draft Pick: Zack Wheeler (12.50)
Worst Draft Pick: Ryan Pressly (-2.94)
Best Free Agent: Trevor Rogers (1.04)
Worst Free Agent: Michael Wacha (-2.92)