2026 Projected Keepers
Methodology
This analysis identifies the top 5 potential keepers for each team by blending backward-looking 2025 performance with forward-looking 2026 projections, then evaluating each player’s surplus value — the difference between what they cost to keep and their market value (ADP).
Data Sources:
- 2025 Actuals — Daily player statistics from the 2025 ESPN season (aggregated and Z-scored).
- 2026 Projections — Pre-season batting and pitching projections for 2026.
- 2026 ADP — Average Draft Position from consensus rankings (ESPN, CBS, NFBC, FantasyPros, RotoWire).
- Current Rosters — ESPN roster snapshot cross-referenced to ensure only currently rostered players are evaluated.
Scoring System: 5x5 Head-to-Head Categories
- Batting: Runs (R), Home Runs (HR), Runs Batted In (RBI), Stolen Bases (SB), On-Base Plus Slugging (OPS)
- Pitching: Earned Run Average (ERA), Walks + Hits per Inning Pitched (WHIP), Strikeouts per 9 Innings (K/9), Quality Starts (QS), Saves + Holds (SVHD)
Blended Z-Score
Each player receives a Blended Z-Score combining two components:
- 40% weight — 2025 actual Z-scores (how they performed last season)
- 60% weight — 2026 projected Z-scores (how they are expected to perform)
The heavier projection weight accounts for aging curves, injuries, and team changes. Players without 2026 projections are discounted to 70% of their 2025 Z-score.
Surplus Value
The real keeper question is not “Who is my best player?” — it is “Who gives me the most value above their draft cost?”
Surplus = Keeper Cost Round - ADP Round
A player with an ADP of Round 3 who costs a Round 11 keeper pick provides +8 rounds of surplus — a third-round talent for an eleventh-round price.
| Surplus | Assessment |
|---|---|
| +5 or more | Strong Keep — significant free value |
| +2 to +4 | Good Keep — meaningful discount |
| 0 to +1 | Market Price — paying fair value |
| Negative | No Surplus — overpaying vs. the draft |
Top 5 keepers per team are bolded. The next 3 players are shown as alternatives.
Fresh Prince of Bueh Ler (BHill4894)
| # | Player | Type | 2025 Z | Proj Z | Blend Z | ADP | Cost | Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cade Smith | Pitcher | +3.02 | +7.88 | +5.94 | R7 | R21 | +14 |
| 2 | Junior Caminero | Batter | +5.45 | +5.53 | +5.50 | R2 | R16 | +14 |
| 3 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | Batter | +3.63 | +6.11 | +5.12 | R2 | R9 | +7 |
| 4 | Pete Alonso | Batter | +4.88 | +5.12 | +5.02 | R3 | R2 | -1 |
| 5 | Brent Rooker | Batter | +3.67 | +5.08 | +4.52 | R5 | R3 | -2 |
| 6 | Byron Buxton | Batter | +5.42 | +3.32 | +4.16 | R8 | – | – |
| 7 | Zach Neto | Batter | +3.56 | +4.10 | +3.88 | R4 | R20 | +16 |
| 8 | George Springer | Batter | +4.75 | +2.51 | +3.40 | R8 | R19 | +11 |
Balance: 4B / 1P
Datalickmyballs (PJR)
| # | Player | Type | 2025 Z | Proj Z | Blend Z | ADP | Cost | Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jhoan Duran | Pitcher | +1.28 | +6.74 | +4.56 | R7 | R10 | +3 |
| 2 | Jazz Chisholm Jr. | Batter | +3.86 | +4.43 | +4.20 | R3 | R11 | +8 |
| 3 | Trea Turner | Batter | +4.39 | +2.88 | +3.48 | R3 | R1 | -2 |
| 4 | Bryce Harper | Batter | +1.79 | +4.38 | +3.34 | R4 | R4 | 0 |
| 5 | Manny Machado | Batter | +3.16 | +2.60 | +2.82 | R3 | R2 | -1 |
| 6 | Cody Bellinger | Batter | +3.87 | +1.73 | +2.58 | R6 | R18 | +12 |
| 7 | Taylor Ward | Batter | +3.44 | +1.77 | +2.44 | R12 | R17 | +5 |
| 8 | Geraldo Perdomo | Batter | +3.39 | +0.94 | +1.92 | R7 | – | – |
Balance: 4B / 1P
Midnight Muncy’s (Hans-Robert)
| # | Player | Type | 2025 Z | Proj Z | Blend Z | ADP | Cost | Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juan Soto | Batter | +8.31 | +10.19 | +9.44 | R1 | R2 | +1 |
| 2 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | Batter | +2.92 | +5.94 | +4.73 | R2 | R1 | -1 |
| 3 | Devin Williams | Pitcher | +0.48 | +6.60 | +4.15 | R10 | R5 | -5 |
| 4 | Riley Greene | Batter | +3.40 | +2.90 | +3.10 | R7 | R11 | +4 |
| 5 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Pitcher | +1.76 | +2.19 | +2.02 | R3 | R4 | +1 |
| 6 | Vinnie Pasquantino | Batter | +1.43 | +2.09 | +1.83 | R8 | R9 | +1 |
| 7 | Ryan Walker | Pitcher | -0.77 | +3.33 | +1.69 | R21 | R8 | -13 |
| 8 | Spencer Torkelson | Batter | +0.67 | +1.16 | +0.97 | R18 | – | – |
Balance: 3B / 2P
Honey Nut Chourios (Mikeaffourtit)
| # | Player | Type | 2025 Z | Proj Z | Blend Z | ADP | Cost | Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Corbin Carroll | Batter | +6.10 | +7.06 | +6.67 | R2 | R10 | +8 |
| 2 | Kyle Tucker | Batter | +4.91 | +6.76 | +6.02 | R2 | R3 | +1 |
| 3 | Tarik Skubal | Pitcher | +4.49 | +5.91 | +5.34 | R1 | R12 | +11 |
| 4 | Nick Kurtz | Batter | +4.35 | +5.92 | +5.29 | R2 | – | – |
| 5 | Garrett Crochet | Pitcher | +2.87 | +4.32 | +3.74 | R2 | R15 | +13 |
| 6 | Jackson Chourio | Batter | +2.20 | +3.97 | +3.26 | R3 | R13 | +10 |
| 7 | Abner Uribe | Pitcher | +0.00 | +3.64 | +2.18 | R20 | – | – |
| 8 | Hunter Brown | Pitcher | +2.71 | +1.05 | +1.71 | R4 | R9 | +5 |
Balance: 3B / 2P
I Shota the sheriff (dorton31)
| # | Player | Type | 2025 Z | Proj Z | Blend Z | ADP | Cost | Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Schwarber | Batter | +10.49 | +7.17 | +8.50 | R3 | R4 | +1 |
| 2 | Cal Raleigh | Batter | +9.72 | +6.13 | +7.57 | R2 | R8 | +6 |
| 3 | Josh Hader | Pitcher | +4.98 | +7.91 | +6.73 | R12 | R5 | -7 |
| 4 | Matt Olson | Batter | +1.67 | +3.57 | +2.81 | R4 | R1 | -3 |
| 5 | Raisel Iglesias | Pitcher | +0.49 | +3.57 | +2.34 | R12 | R7 | -5 |
| 6 | Yandy Diaz | Batter | +1.17 | +0.89 | +1.00 | R13 | R19 | +6 |
| 7 | Matt Chapman | Batter | -0.46 | +1.49 | +0.71 | R14 | R10 | -4 |
| 8 | Ian Happ | Batter | -0.10 | +1.14 | +0.64 | R15 | R11 | -4 |
Balance: 3B / 2P
Drill ya mama (Keryon My Wayward Sony)
| # | Player | Type | 2025 Z | Proj Z | Blend Z | ADP | Cost | Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason Miller | Pitcher | +0.00 | +11.51 | +6.90 | R5 | R5 | 0 |
| 2 | Gunnar Henderson | Batter | +1.20 | +5.99 | +4.08 | R2 | R1 | -1 |
| 3 | James Wood | Batter | +3.77 | +3.63 | +3.69 | R4 | R25 | +21 |
| 4 | Freddie Freeman | Batter | +1.85 | +3.30 | +2.72 | R6 | R2 | -4 |
| 5 | Wyatt Langford | Batter | +1.61 | +3.41 | +2.69 | R5 | R3 | -2 |
| 6 | Jeff Hoffman | Pitcher | -0.46 | +3.79 | +2.09 | R14 | R13 | -1 |
| 7 | CJ Abrams | Batter | +2.52 | +1.72 | +2.04 | R7 | R4 | -3 |
| 8 | Jarren Duran | Batter | +2.07 | +1.85 | +1.94 | R6 | R17 | +11 |
Balance: 4B / 1P
All Rise (chadcherry214)
| # | Player | Type | 2025 Z | Proj Z | Blend Z | ADP | Cost | Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aaron Judge | Batter | +11.00 | +12.52 | +11.91 | R1 | R1 | 0 |
| 2 | Bobby Witt Jr. | Batter | +5.54 | +8.32 | +7.21 | R1 | R19 | +18 |
| 3 | Elly De La Cruz | Batter | +5.19 | +6.30 | +5.85 | R1 | R12 | +11 |
| 4 | Julio Rodriguez | Batter | +4.93 | +6.19 | +5.68 | R2 | R4 | +2 |
| 5 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | Batter | +5.86 | +4.06 | +4.78 | R4 | R11 | +7 |
| 6 | Ronald Acuna Jr. | Batter | -0.18 | +7.73 | +4.57 | R1 | R2 | +1 |
| 7 | Randy Arozarena | Batter | +4.16 | +2.15 | +2.96 | R9 | R13 | +4 |
| 8 | Trevor Megill | Pitcher | +0.00 | +3.72 | +2.23 | R16 | R16 | 0 |
Balance: 5B / 0P — All batters, zero pitching
Big Papi (tedphillips627)
| # | Player | Type | 2025 Z | Proj Z | Blend Z | ADP | Cost | Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aroldis Chapman | Pitcher | +7.20 | +7.43 | +7.34 | R9 | R23 | +14 |
| 2 | Andres Munoz | Pitcher | +3.63 | +7.33 | +5.85 | R6 | R8 | +2 |
| 3 | Eugenio Suarez | Batter | +6.20 | +3.18 | +4.39 | R9 | R10 | +1 |
| 4 | Ketel Marte | Batter | +2.52 | +3.86 | +3.32 | R3 | R5 | +2 |
| 5 | Zack Wheeler | Pitcher | +3.77 | +2.93 | +3.27 | R13 | R2 | -11 |
| 6 | Yordan Alvarez | Batter | +0.00 | +5.11 | +3.06 | R4 | R1 | -3 |
| 7 | Josh Naylor | Batter | +2.35 | +2.14 | +2.22 | R6 | R6 | 0 |
| 8 | Hunter Greene | Pitcher | +1.26 | +1.98 | +1.69 | R13 | R9 | -4 |
Balance: 2B / 3P
DEVERSity: an old wooden ship (ESPNFAN6799833945)
| # | Player | Type | 2025 Z | Proj Z | Blend Z | ADP | Cost | Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paul Skenes | Pitcher | +3.31 | +4.93 | +4.28 | R1 | R20 | +19 |
| 2 | Rafael Devers | Batter | +3.47 | +3.71 | +3.61 | R5 | R1 | -4 |
| 3 | David Bednar | Pitcher | +0.00 | +5.87 | +3.52 | R9 | R18 | +9 |
| 4 | Seiya Suzuki | Batter | +2.67 | +2.43 | +2.53 | R10 | R11 | +1 |
| 5 | Jacob deGrom | Pitcher | +1.92 | +2.37 | +2.19 | R6 | R28 | +22 |
| 6 | Willy Adames | Batter | +2.11 | +2.10 | +2.10 | R12 | R16 | +4 |
| 7 | Emilio Pagan | Pitcher | +0.00 | +2.48 | +1.49 | R15 | – | – |
| 8 | William Contreras | Batter | +0.97 | +0.95 | +0.95 | R6 | R3 | -3 |
Balance: 2B / 3P
Shohei Me the Money (msokul5)
| # | Player | Type | 2025 Z | Proj Z | Blend Z | ADP | Cost | Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edwin Diaz | Pitcher | +4.22 | +8.93 | +7.05 | R5 | R5 | 0 |
| 2 | Jose Ramirez | Batter | +5.89 | +6.78 | +6.43 | R1 | R1 | 0 |
| 3 | Shohei Ohtani | Batter | +10.89 | +2.92 | +6.11 | R9 | R3 | -6 |
| 4 | Francisco Lindor | Batter | +4.90 | +4.08 | +4.41 | R3 | R2 | -1 |
| 5 | Bryan Abreu | Pitcher | +4.33 | +3.70 | +3.95 | R24 | R21 | -3 |
| 6 | Christian Yelich | Batter | +4.55 | +1.15 | +2.51 | R10 | R8 | -2 |
| 7 | Robert Suarez | Pitcher | +1.99 | +1.30 | +1.58 | R21 | R12 | -9 |
| 8 | Joe Ryan | Pitcher | +1.65 | +1.14 | +1.34 | R8 | R9 | +1 |
Balance: 3B / 2P
League-Wide Takeaways
- All Rise has the most dominant keeper class — Bobby Witt Jr. at R19 (+18 surplus) and Elly De La Cruz at R12 (+11 surplus) are league-winning steals. Their weakness is zero pitching depth.
- Honey Nut Chourios built smart — Skubal at R12 (+11), Carroll at R10 (+8), and Crochet at R15 (+13) are all high-surplus keeps with strong projections AND positional balance. Jackson Chourio at R13 (+10) is a strong alternative if needed.
- Surplus is not everything — Shohei Ohtani shows -6 surplus for Shohei Me the Money, but he is still the highest raw-value batter in the league. Sometimes paying market price for an elite player is correct.
- Several teams are overpaying for keeper slots — Hader at R5 (-7), Wheeler at R2 (-11), and Freeman at R2 (-4) are all costing more than what the draft market would charge. Those teams should consider swapping for cheaper surplus players deeper on their roster.
- Pitcher balance matters — All Rise (5B/0P) and PJR (4B/1P) enter the draft needing arms badly, while Big Papi (2B/3P) and DEVERSity (2B/3P) have pitching locked down.
- Hidden value in the 6-8 slots — Several teams have more surplus below their top 5 than in it. PJR’s Cody Bellinger at R18 (+12 surplus) and Taylor Ward at R17 (+5) outperform multiple top-5 selections on pure value. Drill ya mama’s Jarren Duran at R17 (+11) is a similar story.
Change Log
- Analyze 2025 Stats
- Calculate Z-Scores
- Blend 2026 Projections (40/60 weight)
- Add ADP Surplus Value
- Cross-reference current rosters
- Expand tables to top 8 per team
- Generate league-wide report
Last Updated: 2026-03-21