Trade Request: Eugenio Suarez for Jazz Chisholm Jr.
| *Analyzed: 2026-05-14 | Datalickmyballs gives Jazz Chisholm Jr. | Skubal Snacks gives Eugenio Suarez* |
Decision: Declined
Overview
In May 2026 Skubal Snacks submitted a trade offer — Eugenio Suarez straight up for Jazz Chisholm Jr. On the surface the model returned a +1/+1 net category improvement for both teams, technically labeling it “mutually beneficial.” But the numbers behind that verdict told a different story. This page documents the full analysis used to reach the decision.
Current Rosters (at time of analysis)
Datalickmyballs
| Player | Pos | Slot | IL / Injury |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 1B | 1B | |
| Luke Raley | RF | 1B/3B | |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. ◄ | 2B | 2B | |
| Daniel Schneemann | 2B | 2B/SS | |
| Alex Bregman | 3B | 3B | |
| Brenton Doyle | CF | BE | |
| Dennis Santana | RP | BE | |
| Gleyber Torres | 2B | BE | TEN_DAY_DL |
| Hunter Goodman | C | BE | |
| Jacob Wilson | SS | BE | TEN_DAY_DL |
| Trevor Rogers | SP | BE | |
| Shea Langeliers | C | C | |
| Brandon Marsh | CF | OF | |
| Cody Bellinger | LF | OF | |
| Daulton Varsho | CF | OF | |
| Trent Grisham | CF | OF | |
| Jason Adam | RP | P | |
| Jeff Hoffman | RP | RP | |
| Jhoan Duran | RP | RP | |
| Tyler Rogers | RP | RP | |
| Chris Sale | SP | SP | |
| Gavin Williams | SP | SP | |
| Logan Webb | SP | SP | FIFTEEN_DAY_DL |
| Michael McGreevy | SP | SP | |
| Sandy Alcantara | SP | SP | |
| Colson Montgomery | SS | SS | |
| George Springer | DH | UTIL | |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 1B | UTIL | |
| Edwin Diaz | RP | IL | SIXTY_DAY_DL |
| Giancarlo Stanton | DH | IL | TEN_DAY_DL |
| Luis Robert Jr. | CF | IL | TEN_DAY_DL |
Skubal Snacks
| Player | Pos | Slot | IL / Injury |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Kurtz | 1B | 1B | |
| Josh Naylor | 1B | 1B/3B | |
| Brandon Lowe | 2B | 2B | |
| Matt McLain | 2B | 2B/SS | |
| Matt Chapman | 3B | 3B | |
| Carter Jensen | C | BE | |
| Corbin Carroll | RF | BE | |
| Eugenio Suarez ◄ | 3B | BE | TEN_DAY_DL |
| Kyle Bradish | SP | BE | |
| Ryan Helsley | RP | BE | FIFTEEN_DAY_DL |
| Tyler Glasnow | SP | BE | FIFTEEN_DAY_DL |
| Dalton Rushing | C | C | |
| Kyle Tucker | RF | OF | |
| Mickey Moniak | RF | OF | |
| Owen Caissie | RF | OF | |
| Yordan Alvarez | DH | OF | |
| Didier Fuentes | SP | P | |
| Jakob Junis | RP | RP | |
| Tanner Scott | RP | RP | |
| Tony Santillan | RP | RP | |
| Kade Anderson | SP | SP | |
| Kyle Harrison | SP | SP | |
| Mick Abel | SP | SP | FIFTEEN_DAY_DL |
| Parker Messick | SP | SP | |
| Payton Tolle | SP | SP | |
| Mookie Betts | SS | SS | |
| Carson Benge | CF | UTIL | |
| Freddie Freeman | 1B | UTIL | |
| Garrett Crochet | SP | IL | FIFTEEN_DAY_DL |
| Nick Pivetta | SP | IL | FIFTEEN_DAY_DL |
| Tarik Skubal | SP | IL | FIFTEEN_DAY_DL |
Rosters pulled live from the ESPN API on 2026-05-14.
Team Category Profiles
Before evaluating the trade, here is where each team stands in all 10 H2H scoring categories. Rankings are based on full-season projections across all 10 league teams (rank 1 = best, 10 = worst).
Datalickmyballs
| Category | Rank | Status |
|---|---|---|
| R | #3 | Strength |
| HR | #3 | Strength |
| RBI | #3 | Strength |
| SB | #7 | Competitive |
| OPS | #5 | Competitive |
| K/9 | #10 | Weakness |
| QS | #9 | Weakness |
| SVHD | #2 | Strength |
| ERA | #2 | Strength |
| WHIP | #6 | Competitive |
Strengths are in the batting power categories and bullpen (SVHD, ERA). The two glaring weaknesses are pitching depth — K/9 dead last and QS second-to-last. These are the categories that need addressing through trades.
Skubal Snacks
| Category | Rank | Status |
|---|---|---|
| R | #5 | Competitive |
| HR | #5 | Competitive |
| RBI | #6 | Competitive |
| SB | #6 | Competitive |
| OPS | #1 | Strength |
| K/9 | #4 | Competitive |
| QS | #10 | Weakness |
| SVHD | #7 | Competitive |
| ERA | #8 | Weakness |
| SVHD | #7 | Competitive |
| WHIP | #10 | Weakness |
Skubal Snacks’ OPS is the best in the league. Their pitching is in rough shape — QS (#10), WHIP (#10), ERA (#8) — but this is heavily injury-driven: Tarik Skubal, Garrett Crochet, and Nick Pivetta are all on the 15-day DL simultaneously. Their healthy arms are already covering those IL slots, meaning their real pitching inventory is tighter than it looks.
Player Profiles
Jazz Chisholm Jr. — Datalickmyballs
Historical Stats (MLB, full season)
| Year | G | AB | R | HR | RBI | SB | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 97 | 352 | 50 | 19 | 51 | 22 | 0.761 |
| 2024 | 147 | 562 | 74 | 24 | 73 | 40 | 0.760 |
| 2025 | 130 | 462 | 75 | 31 | 80 | 31 | 0.813 |
| 2026 | 42 | 150 | 17 | 4 | 14 | 11 | 0.600 |
Chisholm has been a consistent 5-category contributor since 2024, with stolen base volume (22–40 SB per year) that is rare in this format. His 2026 start is slow — .600 OPS and slugging well below projection — but stolen bases are tracking above pace (+13% vs projection).
2026: Projection vs YTD Actuals vs Full-Season Pace
| R | HR | RBI | SB | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full-Season Projection | 79 | 28 | 80 | 31 | 0.758 |
| YTD Actual | 13 | 3 | 11 | 9 | 0.577 |
| Full-Season Pace (×3.9) | 50 | 11 | 42 | 35 | 0.577 |
| Pace vs Projection | ▼ -36% | ▼ -58% | ▼ -46% | ▲ +13% | ▼ -24% |
Eugenio Suarez — Skubal Snacks
Historical Stats (MLB, full season)
| Year | G | AB | R | HR | RBI | SB | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 162 | 598 | 68 | 22 | 96 | 2 | 0.714 |
| 2024 | 158 | 571 | 90 | 30 | 101 | 2 | 0.788 |
| 2025 | 159 | 588 | 91 | 49 | 118 | 4 | 0.824 |
| 2026 | 25 | 91 | 10 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 0.663 |
Suarez’s 2025 season was elite — 49 HR, .824 OPS — making him a legitimate fantasy stud. But his 2026 start raises flags beyond just a slow start: only 25 games played (currently on 10-day DL), and every counting category is tracking well below projection pace.
2026: Projection vs YTD Actuals vs Full-Season Pace
| R | HR | RBI | SB | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full-Season Projection | 77 | 34 | 95 | 3 | 0.771 |
| YTD Actual | 10 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 0.663 |
| Full-Season Pace (×3.9) | 38 | 11 | 42 | 0 | 0.663 |
| Pace vs Projection | ▼ -49% | ▼ -66% | ▼ -55% | ▼ -100% | ▼ -14% |
Category Impact Simulation
The simulation re-ranks all 10 league teams after the player swap. Rank 1 = best, 10 = worst.
| Cat | Datalickmyballs Before | After | Δ | Skubal Snacks Before | After | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 3 | 3 | — | 5 | 5 | — |
| HR | 3 | 1 | +2↑ | 5 | 5 | — |
| RBI | 3 | 2 | +1↑ | 6 | 6 | — |
| SB | 7 | 10 | -3↓ | 6 | 4 | +2↑ |
| OPS | 5 | 5 | — | 1 | 1 | — |
| K/9 | 10 | 10 | — | 4 | 4 | — |
| QS | 9 | 9 | — | 10 | 10 | — |
| SVHD | 2 | 2 | — | 7 | 7 | — |
| ERA | 2 | 2 | — | 8 | 8 | — |
| WHIP | 6 | 6 | — | 10 | 10 | — |
Datalickmyballs: 2 improved, 1 worsened → net +1
Skubal Snacks: 1 improved, 0 worsened → net +1
Model verdict: Mutually beneficial — both teams net-improve.
Strategic fit:
Datalickmyballs: reinforces already-strong HR (#3) and RBI (#3).
Skubal Snacks: addresses SB from #6 to #4.
Decision: Declined
The model calls this +1/+1 and technically mutually beneficial. But the strategic fit analysis reveals why it is not a good deal for Datalickmyballs:
1. The gains land in the wrong categories.
HR improves from #3 to #1 and RBI from #3 to #2 — categories that are already strong. The team’s real problems are K/9 (#10) and QS (#9), and this trade does nothing for either.
2. The one loss is the most damaging one possible.
SB drops from #7 to dead last (#10). Stolen bases are the hardest category to recover in H2H — there are very few consistent SB contributors available, and Chisholm at 35-SB pace is one of the best on any roster.
3. Suarez is on the IL and tracking far below projection.
At the time of the offer, Suarez had played only 25 games and was on the 10-day DL. His HR pace is -66% of projection, RBI -55%, and SB is zero. Accepting an injured, underperforming player in exchange for a healthy, active one is a risk that is not offset by the upside.
4. Chisholm is too valuable as a trade chip to give away cheaply.
With K/9 and QS both in the bottom two league-wide, the right move is to trade Chisholm for pitching from a team with a genuine surplus of starting pitcher depth. That deal has significantly more upside than this offer.
Methodology
This analysis was produced by fantasy_baseball/trade_analysis/analyze_trade_espn_2026.py:
- Live rosters pulled from the ESPN API via
mlb_processing.setup_league() - Historical stats aggregated from MLB daily game logs (
stats_mlb_daily_2023–2026.csv) - 2026 projections from
player_batter_projections_2026.csv; falls back to scaled YTD pace (×3.90) when projection is unavailable - Category simulation re-ranks all 10 teams across all 10 H2H scoring categories (R, HR, RBI, SB, OPS, K/9, QS, SVHD, ERA, WHIP) after the swap
- Strategic fit checks whether rank gains address actual weaknesses (rank 8–10) or reinforce existing strengths (rank 1–3)
Last Updated: 2026-05-14