🏥 Player Injury Duration Analysis

Detailed analysis of actual player recovery time spent on the Injured List (IL) compared to their initial estimated day categories (7-day, 10-day, 15-day, 60-day IL) across 2023-2026 MLB seasons.

Project Overview

Injuries have a massive impact on fantasy baseball performance and team management. By reconstructing 3,016 individual player IL stints from MLB transaction logs between 2023 and 2026, this project evaluates actual recovery times against the minimum required stay on the IL.

For duration statistics, we analyze 2,236 completed stints (where players were formally activated) to prevent censored ongoing stints from biasing the averages downward. This analysis helps fantasy managers better discount injury risk and forecast return timelines.

Key Findings & Executive Summary

IL Extension Rates: Initial IL designations are highly optimistic. Only 38% of hitters placed on the 10-day IL and 23% of pitchers placed on the 15-day IL are activated on time.
Pitcher Severity: Pitchers placed on the 15-day IL spend a median of 28 days out—effectively doubling their expected minimum.
Positional Recovery: Starting Pitchers (SP) placed on the 60-day IL spend a median of 102 days on the IL.

Estimated vs. Actual IL Durations

Estimated IL Type	Total Placements	Completed Stints	Avg Recovery (Days)	Median Recovery (Days)	Spend Minimum (<= IL Type)	Extended (> IL Type)
7-day IL	54	50	15.5	9	34.0% (17)	66.0% (33)
10-day IL	1,297	1,082	23.9	16	38.1% (412)	61.9% (670)
15-day IL	1,388	1,010	39.6	28	23.0% (232)	77.0% (778)
60-day IL	277	94	110.3	100	3.2% (3)	96.8% (91)

[!NOTE] Placements on the 60-day IL are reserved for severe injuries. Because players cannot be activated before 60 days have elapsed, the minimum actual duration for completed 60-day IL stints is mathematically >= 60 days.

Actual Duration by Injury Category

Breaking down actual recovery times by diagnosed body part and IL type highlights which injury categories are most frequently extended beyond their minimum designations:

Injury Category	Estimated IL Type	Placements	Completed	Avg Recovery (Days)	Median Recovery (Days)	Max Recovery (Days)
Other/Unspecified	7-day	10	10	18.2	11	83
Other/Unspecified	10-day	450	389	14.3	4	173
Other/Unspecified	15-day	328	260	37.0	28	196
Other/Unspecified	60-day	55	28	97.7	81	182
Elbow/UCL	10-day	63	43	34.3	23	131
Elbow/UCL	15-day	396	222	46.1	31	207
Elbow/UCL	60-day	91	25	124.4	131	183
Shoulder	10-day	64	49	44.6	33	215
Shoulder	15-day	277	194	49.3	38	219
Shoulder	60-day	60	21	117.2	113	209
Oblique/Rib	10-day	153	130	28.2	25	124
Oblique/Rib	15-day	74	67	40.0	35	125
Oblique/Rib	60-day	11	4	104.0	118	148
Wrist/Hand/Finger	10-day	155	129	30.6	24	118
Wrist/Hand/Finger	15-day	58	54	31.4	24	120
Wrist/Hand/Finger	60-day	9	3	113.7	100	145
Back/Spine	10-day	112	95	25.4	17	138
Back/Spine	15-day	95	83	28.0	22	122
Back/Spine	60-day	13	4	115.0	123	130
Hamstring	10-day	137	117	25.9	22	92
Hamstring	15-day	60	56	28.9	23	153
Hamstring	60-day	6	1	58.0	58	58
Knee	10-day	70	54	28.0	22	113
Knee	15-day	60	43	31.0	22	92
Knee	60-day	18	5	119.0	112	181
Ankle/Foot	10-day	90	74	27.0	18	86
Ankle/Foot	15-day	40	31	28.7	20	104
Ankle/Foot	60-day	14	3	64.0	64	67
Concussion	7-day	44	40	14.8	9	152
Concussion	10-day	3	2	33.5	39	39

Actual Duration by Player Position

Because pitcher and hitter roster rules differ, recovery profiles vary materially by position:

Position	Estimated IL Type	Placements	Completed	Avg Recovery (Days)	Median Recovery (Days)	Max Recovery (Days)
C	7-day	3	2	13.5	20	20
C	10-day	62	55	18.4	11	85
C	15-day	209	155	38.2	26	161
C	60-day	20	10	112.7	118	175
OF	7-day	10	9	10.9	11	16
OF	10-day	216	183	23.0	16	154
OF	15-day	100	79	34.2	21	133
OF	60-day	13	5	91.8	91	113
SP	10-day	7	6	3.3	3	5
SP	15-day	71	51	38.1	27	119
SP	60-day	13	3	108.0	102	132
1B	7-day	8	8	38.0	15	152
1B	10-day	112	88	31.0	22	173
1B	15-day	1	1	46.0	46	46
1B	60-day	2	1	62.0	62	62
3B	7-day	3	3	11.7	13	13
3B	10-day	100	85	29.3	21	215
3B	15-day	8	4	49.8	25	158
3B	60-day	4	3	76.3	67	100
RP	10-day	8	7	16.6	3	93
RP	15-day	50	39	30.9	22	168
RP	60-day	2	1	156.0	156	156
2B	7-day	1	1	8.0	8	8
2B	10-day	89	77	20.4	13	99
2B	60-day	2	1	128.0	128	128
SS	10-day	90	76	20.7	13	118
SS	15-day	1	1	44.0	44	44
UTIL	10-day	2	2	72.5	104	104

Actual Duration by MLB Team

Medical staff protocols, rehab facilities, and roster depths contribute to variations in average stays across teams:

MLB Team	Estimated IL Type	Placements	Completed	Avg Recovery (Days)	Median Recovery (Days)	Primary Injury (Count)
Los Angeles Angels	7-day	4	4	51.2	30	Other/Unspecified (33)
	10-day	62	44	23.5	19
	15-day	51	35	37.3	21
	60-day	9	1	79.0	79
Cincinnati Reds	7-day	3	3	8.7	9	Other/Unspecified (36)
	10-day	54	47	34.3	18
	15-day	55	45	34.5	23
	60-day	13	6	136.2	155
Los Angeles Dodgers	7-day	1	1	12.0	12	Other/Unspecified (29)
	10-day	40	35	21.8	13
	15-day	73	52	52.1	44
	60-day	10	3	88.0	61
San Francisco Giants	7-day	6	5	11.0	7	Other/Unspecified (26)
	10-day	63	55	17.1	11
	15-day	39	33	27.5	25
	60-day	14	4	130.8	134
Boston Red Sox	7-day	2	2	7.5	10	Other/Unspecified (38)
	10-day	53	45	24.6	15
	15-day	51	40	34.1	26
	60-day	15	3	77.7	79
Miami Marlins	7-day	1	1	13.0	13	Other/Unspecified (39)
	10-day	55	51	24.1	17
	15-day	46	30	33.1	24
	60-day	13	5	96.4	94
Texas Rangers	10-day	50	44	21.4	11	Other/Unspecified (30)
	15-day	53	41	28.5	22
	60-day	11	5	123.0	127
Chicago White Sox	10-day	53	44	22.1	13	Other/Unspecified (32)
	15-day	52	40	32.3	23
	60-day	9	1	73.0	73
Minnesota Twins	7-day	3	3	12.0	13	Other/Unspecified (33)
	10-day	61	55	21.2	14
	15-day	44	31	52.0	36
	60-day	5	1	181.0	181
Colorado Rockies	7-day	2	1	15.0	15	Other/Unspecified (34)
	10-day	44	38	20.2	12
	15-day	55	37	28.4	18
	60-day	8	6	141.7	142
Milwaukee Brewers	7-day	2	1	16.0	16	Other/Unspecified (34)
	10-day	39	33	32.3	22
	15-day	59	41	44.6	29
	60-day	9	5	84.6	82
Baltimore Orioles	7-day	4	4	9.0	9	Other/Unspecified (28)
	10-day	44	38	25.2	21
	15-day	47	33	39.2	31
	60-day	10	5	128.8	158
Houston Astros	7-day	1	1	7.0	7	Elbow/UCL (29)
	10-day	44	36	24.4	18
	15-day	50	31	41.6	26
	60-day	10	3	101.7	91
New York Yankees	7-day	2	2	12.0	16	Other/Unspecified (36)
	10-day	46	33	29.9	31
	15-day	47	41	46.8	42
	60-day	9	4	90.0	83
Athletics	10-day	42	29	29.6	25	Other/Unspecified (25)
	15-day	51	38	56.6	38
	60-day	8	6	89.2	96
Atlanta Braves	7-day	2	2	19.0	29	Elbow/UCL (24)
	10-day	37	28	23.9	15
	15-day	49	32	38.7	26
	60-day	12	2	116.5	143
Chicago Cubs	7-day	2	2	11.5	16	Other/Unspecified (25)
	10-day	28	23	16.2	15
	15-day	58	43	34.0	21
	60-day	11	4	115.8	125
Tampa Bay Rays	10-day	42	35	22.8	13	Other/Unspecified (32)
	15-day	44	31	29.0	21
	60-day	13	4	133.5	136
New York Mets	10-day	39	32	26.2	16	Other/Unspecified (33)
	15-day	47	30	45.5	31
	60-day	9	2	89.5	117
Kansas City Royals	7-day	3	3	7.3	7	Other/Unspecified (21)
	10-day	34	28	21.2	12
	15-day	50	37	39.2	28
	60-day	6	2	87.5	113
Pittsburgh Pirates	7-day	4	4	16.2	20	Other/Unspecified (28)
	10-day	45	37	20.9	17
	15-day	36	26	47.3	33
	60-day	7	3	132.7	154
Toronto Blue Jays	7-day	4	4	10.0	9	Elbow/UCL (21)
	10-day	40	34	21.1	15
	15-day	38	26	42.4	34
	60-day	9	3	136.0	156
San Diego Padres	7-day	2	1	8.0	8	Other/Unspecified (24)
	10-day	34	26	24.2	20
	15-day	47	31	41.9	33
	60-day	6	2	86.0	102
Detroit Tigers	10-day	38	30	26.4	26	Other/Unspecified (37)
	15-day	38	26	33.5	22
	60-day	12	4	72.0	75
Arizona Diamondbacks	10-day	37	31	29.7	21	Back/Spine (28)
	15-day	41	28	36.8	29
	60-day	9	1	114.0	114
Seattle Mariners	7-day	2	2	8.5	10	Other/Unspecified (29)
	10-day	32	27	26.1	19
	15-day	40	29	39.6	34
	60-day	5	2	82.0	87
St. Louis Cardinals	7-day	1	1	7.0	7	Other/Unspecified (17)
	10-day	42	38	25.2	17
	15-day	26	22	46.2	29
	60-day	5	2	134.0	145
Cleveland Guardians	7-day	2	2	6.5	7	Other/Unspecified (27)
	10-day	28	24	13.8	8
	15-day	37	30	51.7	51
	60-day	5	2	67.5	73
Washington Nationals	7-day	1	1	83.0	83	Other/Unspecified (25)
	10-day	32	28	25.0	16
	15-day	29	21	31.6	19
	60-day	10	2	186.0	189
Philadelphia Phillies	10-day	32	32	22.9	14	Other/Unspecified (16)
	15-day	33	29	38.7	31
	60-day	5	1	82.0	82

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Last Updated: 2026-06-10