⚾ Trade Analysis: Corbin Carroll for Bryan Woo (2026)
Trade: Give Bryan Woo (SP, SEA) · Receive Corbin Carroll (OF, ARI)
Project Overview
A friend received a trade offer — Corbin Carroll for Bryan Woo — and wanted an objective, data-backed evaluation. Rather than relying on ADP rankings or gut feel, we aggregated per-game MLB box score data across four seasons (2023–2026) and applied the league’s exact points-based scoring formula to produce a like-for-like historical and projected comparison.
Scoring System
This is a points-based league — not 5×5 roto — which changes the calculus significantly. High-value multipliers that shape the analysis:
| Category | Points |
|---|---|
| Total Bases | +1 |
| BB (batting) | +1 |
| Runs | +1 |
| RBI | +1 |
| Stolen Bases | +1 |
| Strikeouts (batting) | -1 |
| Innings Pitched | +3 per IP |
| Quality Starts | +5 |
| Saves | +5 |
| Wins | +2 |
| Strikeouts (pitching) | +1 |
| Earned Runs | -2 |
| Losses | -2 |
| Hits Allowed | -1 |
| BB Issued | -1 |
| Holds | +2 |
| Blown Saves | -1 |
QS (+5) and SV (+5) are the largest single-event multipliers. Batting strikeouts (-1) create a persistent drag for high-K hitters across a full season.
Data Sources & Methodology
All statistics were pulled from a local data lake populated by MLB Stats API daily game logs. Each row is one player game; stats are aggregated across all games per year.
| File | Years |
|---|---|
stats_mlb_daily_2023.csv | 2023 actuals |
stats_mlb_daily_2024.csv | 2024 actuals |
stats_mlb_daily_2025.csv | 2025 actuals |
stats_mlb_daily_2026.csv | 2026 YTD actuals |
player_batter_projections_2026.csv | 2026 full-season projection |
player_pitcher_projections_2026.csv | 2026 full-season projection |
Players matched by MLB player_id (682998 = Carroll, 693433 = Woo). QS uses the actual column from each daily file for 2023–2026; QS for the 2026 projection is estimated at 65% of GS (not included in the projection file).
The full analysis script: analyze_trade_carroll_woo.py
Results
Corbin Carroll — Fantasy Points by Year
| Year | G | TB | BB | R | RBI | SB | K | PTS | PTS/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 155 | 286 | 57 | 116 | 76 | 54 | 125 | 464 | 3.0 |
| 2024 | 158 | 252 | 73 | 121 | 74 | 35 | 130 | 425 | 2.7 |
| 2025 | 143 | 305 | 67 | 107 | 84 | 32 | 153 | 442 | 3.1 |
| 2026 YTD | 39 | 68 | 21 | 25 | 20 | 4 | 39 | 99 | 2.5 |
| 2026 Proj | ~145 | 270 | 66 | 101 | 83 | 34 | 131 | 423 | 2.9 |
Bryan Woo — Fantasy Points by Year
| Year | G | IP | ER | W | L | K | H | BB | QS | PTS | PTS/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 18 | 87.7 | 41 | 4 | 5 | 93 | 75 | 31 | 4 | 186 | 10.3 |
| 2024 | 22 | 121.3 | 39 | 9 | 3 | 101 | 96 | 13 | 10 | 340 | 15.5 |
| 2025 | 30 | 186.7 | 61 | 15 | 7 | 198 | 137 | 36 | 21 | 584 | 19.5 |
| 2026 YTD | 9 | 53.0 | 23 | 3 | 2 | 47 | 43 | 10 | 6 | 139 | 15.4 |
| 2026 Proj | ~31 | 186.6 | 71 | 13 | 9 | 188 | 157 | 40 | ~20 | 517 | 16.7 |
Head-to-Head Fantasy Points
| Year | Carroll | Woo | Woo Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 464 | 186 | -278 (Woo partial season — 18 starts) |
| 2024 | 425 | 340 | -85 |
| 2025 | 442 | 584 | +142 |
| 2026 YTD | 99 | 139 | +40 |
| 2026 Pace | 411 | 478 | +67 |
| 2026 Proj | 423 | 517 | +94 |
Key Findings
1. The trajectory favors Woo — and has been widening. In 2023, Carroll had more fantasy points simply because Woo was a partial-season debut. By 2024 Woo was within 85 points over a full season despite 8 fewer starts. In 2025, Woo produced 142 more points than Carroll on a true full-season comparison. The 2026 projection extends that to +94.
2. Woo is built for this scoring format. A starting pitcher’s value here scales with IP (×3) and QS (+5). Woo’s 2025: 186.7 IP = 560 innings-pitched points alone, plus 21 QS = 105 additional points just from quality starts. He produced 584 total points — nearly 5× Carroll’s per-game rate extrapolated to the same 30-game span.
3. Carroll’s 2026 has a real SB problem. Carroll’s SB (54 → 35 → 32 across three years, now 4 in 39 games in 2026) is declining each season. SB is his primary edge in this format — without it, he’s a slightly above-average fantasy hitter being penalized regularly by his strikeout rate.
4. Roster context amplifies the case against. The friend’s OF is already deep (Tatis Jr., DeLauter, Pages, Harris, Benge). Carroll would start from a bench slot. Meanwhile, Bradish is flagged, Eovaldi is DTD, Abel is IL15, Diaz is IL60 — Woo is a cornerstone of a rotation that cannot afford another loss.
Verdict
Decline. Woo projects ~94 fantasy points ahead of Carroll over a full season in this format. Carroll’s scoring-system fit is mediocre (high Ks, fading SB pace), the roster gap is in pitching not OF, and the historical trend shows Woo’s advantage growing each year he adds starts.
TODO
- Initial draft
- Add scoring system table
- Add multi-year methodology and data sources
- Add full results tables (2023–2026)
- Spell check
Last Updated: 2026-05-14